The Forecast Tracking Tool assists users to identify the best suited data source for forecasts by indicator or country of interest. The tool provides instant comparisons of forecasts across providers and time horizon in addition to the calculated mean average error (MAE) for data based on official published statistics. The lower the average error, the better the forecast.

Certain limitations exist to any approach for assessing a "best" forecast and should be considered when selecting the data source to support your analytic objectives. Limitations include:

• Forecasts are released at different times throughout the year and thus use varying historical time horizons to inform estimates.
• Indicators, countries, and forecast periods varying by provider.
• Select agencies have substantially shorter forecasting records, affecting the availability for comparison in the Forecast Tracking Tool.

While we cannot equalize production schedules, indicators, or methodologies across forecast providers, the Forecast Tracking Tool provides a consistent methodology to enhance users' insight into the best potential source for the indicators or countries of interest.

We are happy to provide the full methodology used in the Forecast Tracking Tool and welcome your feedback on improving the tool. Please contact us by email at [email protected].