China: Select Economic Signals Return to Pre-COVID Levels in Q3 2020

(Updated: 19 October 2020; Originally published: 17 April 2020)  On Monday, China's National Bureau of Statistics released official economic performance estimates for Q3 2020 that shows a return to pre-crisis levels for some economic indicators. China's GDP growth was 4.9 percent YoY in Q3, according to preliminary estimates, supported by growth in industrial production (5.8% YoY) and services production (4.3% YoY).

• China's unemployment is also gradually decreasing. In September 2020, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.4 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from August.
• Inflation risks continue to decline as well. Consumer price inflation decelerated to 1.7 percent YoY in September. For the first three quarters of 2020 inflation grew by 3.3 percent YoY.

Further review of the expenditure side of GDP reveals that government final consumption and surging exports are the primary factors contributing to the strength and pace of China's overall economic recovery from the COVID-19 disruption. 

• Real personal income, investment, and retail sales of consumer goods have also shifted from negative to positive growth for the first time in 2020. During Q1-Q3, real personal income was up 0.6 percent YoY and investment was up 0.8 percent YoY. Retail sales of consumer goods managed to grow by 0.9 percent YoY during Q3.