USDA Long-Term International Agricultural Projections

The US Deparment of Agriculture's 10-year international projections cover supply, demand, and trade for major agricultural crops and meats for selected countries and global totals. The projections provide foreign-country detail supporting USDA’s long-term projections released in February each year.

According to USDA, over the next several years, the agricultural industry will adjust to lower prices for most farm commodities. Lower prices will likely lead to reductions in planted acerage. Lower feed costs will also provide economic incentives for expansion of livestock production, although increased beef output will be delayed by beef cow inventory and biological factors.

Following those near-term adjustments, long-run developments for global agriculture reflect steady world economic growth and continued global demand for biofuel feedstocks. Those factors combine to support longer-run increases in consumption, trade, and the prices of agricultural products. Reflecting these market adjustments and price projections, the USDA expects export values to decline globally in 2015 and farm cash receipts fall in 2015-16 before both grow over the rest of the projection period. 

USDA’s long-term projections are based on a conditional scenario that assumes current US farm legislation will remain in effect through the projection period, there are no shocks to the US or global economies or agricultural industries, and global weather is normal. Specific assumptions also are made for the macroeconomy and other countries’ policies. The projections are prepared in October through December each year, reflecting a composite of model results and judgment-based analysis.

Source: USDA Agricultural Projections - 2015 International Long-Term Projections to 2024

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