حدث خطأ. التفاصيل إخفاء
لديك صفحات غير محفوظة. استعادة إلغاء

 

One could argue that in a world subject to the inevitability of business cycles, the United States is overdue for a recession. During the 60 year period from 1950 to 2010, the US economy experienced 10 recessions, averaging one recession every six years. In contrast, the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth was just shy of 10 years. The US is now in the midst of nine years of economic growth with the last "Great Recession" a fading memory for some. Will 2019 bring recession to the US?

  • With the potential exceptions of asset prices and the yield curve—now at its lowest level since the last recession—standard leading indicators of economic recession paint a picture of a relatively strong US economy.
  • Economists and investors have good cause, however, to reevaluate the predictive value of standard indicators based on the economic transformation and policy patterns of modern economies. For example, monetary policies, such as zero interest rates and quantitative easing, can distort the yield curve—the rate spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bills—and potentially diminish the value of the spread as a stand-alone indicator of recession. 
  • Researchers globally continue to seek new indicators of economic strength. The Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis has found that racial unemployment rate gaps are narrowest immediately preceding a recession, while researchers at the Central Bank of Norway have shown that residential investment has greater predictive value than stock returns, among other indicators. 

In today's Viz of the Day, we visualize some of the current standard economic indicators so that you can evaluate the same information used by policymakers and investors to estimate the health of the US economy. Interested in learning more about economic recessions globally? You may also enjoy, 40 Years in Financial Crises.

 

Download our latest US ECONOMY data brief

The US Economy Data Brief provides a comprehensive and interactive overview of leading US economic and financial indicators, including but not limited to GDP, inflation and prices, economic activity, financial accounts, debt figures, the labor market, and so much more.

رؤى ذات صلة من Knoema

The World's Largest Economy: China or the United States?

Which is the world's largest economy, China or the United States? As is usual in the field of economics, “It depends.” It depends on the methods used to estimate the size of an economy and to compare one economy to another. Despite modern discussions on refining the calculation of gross domestic product (GDP), the standard measure of an economy’s size and performance, to be more inclusive of economic factors that have been ignored to date, such as environmental and natural resource depletion, there is no commonly accepted alternative to GDP. There are, however, at least two commonly...

The Shadow Economy in Europe and OECD Countries in 2003-2015

The $9.7 trillion global shadow economy is the second largest economy in the world after the United States, according to the 2010 estimates of the black market for 162 countries. Still, as for the more recent study, the size of the underground economy in European and other OECD countries have been decreasing steadily since 2009 and continued shrinking in 2015 averaging to 16.7 percent of official GDP. But this development was not uniform across individual countries: 10 out of 36 OECD countries experienced an increase in the black market size in 2015. The most significant upsurge of...

Global Events and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index

Every day events around the world cause ripple effects that affect global, national, and local levels of economic and political uncertainty. Recent mainstream examples include US sanctions against Venezuela, Brexit, the partial US government shutdown, protests in France, and the US-China trade war. As uncertainty rises, we observe markets responding, whether you're tracking stock prices, commodity prices, or even interest rates. Today we have another more comprehensive measure available to monitor these effects: the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Developed by a group of...

US Purchasing Managers Index Falls Below 50, Signals Contraction

In August, US manufacturing activity contracted 2.1 points from July, the largest contraction in nearly three years. According to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Purchasing Manufacturing Index (PMI) - commonly referred to as the ISM manufacturing index - fell to 49.1, making the US a late comer to a growing club of large economies, such as China, the Eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom, that have likewise reported contracting manufacturing sectors in recent months. The PMI is being dragged down by a sharp decline in new orders, non-farm employment (which increased by...

بيان الخصوصية وسياسة ملفات تعريف الارتباط الخاصة بنا

يستخدم موقعنا ملفات تعريف الارتباط لتحسين تجربتك على الإنترنت. تم وضعها على جهاز الكمبيوتر الخاص بك عندما قمت بتشغيل هذا الموقع. يمكنك تغيير إعدادات ملفات تعريف الارتباط الشخصية من خلال إعدادات متصفح الإنترنت.

سياسة الخصوصية