Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

In December 2022, IHME paused its COVID-19 modeling. IHME has developed projections for total and daily deaths, daily infections and testing, hospital resource use, and social distancing due to COVID-19 for a number of countries. Forecasts at the subnational level are included for select countries. The projections for total deaths, daily deaths, and daily infections and testing each include a reference scenario: Current projection, which assumes social distancing mandates are re-imposed for 6 weeks whenever daily deaths reach 8 per million (0.8 per 100k). They also include two additional scenarios: Mandates easing, which reflects continued easing of social distancing mandates, and mandates are not re-imposed; and Universal Masks, which reflects 95% mask usage in public in every location. Hospital resource use forecasts are based on the Current projection scenario. Social distancing forecasts are based on the Mandates easing scenario. These projections are produced with a model that incorporates data on observed COVID-19 deaths, hospitalizations, and cases, information about social distancing and other protective measures, mobility, and other factors. They include uncertainty intervals and are being updated daily with new data. These forecasts were developed in order to provide hospitals, policy makers, and the public with crucial information about how expected need aligns with existing resources, so that cities and countries can best prepare. Dataset contains Observed and Projected data