Avian Flu Epidemic: Widespread commercial and consumer effects

25 September 2015 - During the first half of 2015, the United States faced its worst outbreak on record of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in poultry (HPAI, informally known as bird flu). According to the World Organisation For Animal Health, since December 2014 in the US nearly 65 million birds were susceptible to HPAI. In its recent report, titled Fall 2015 HPAI Preparedness and Response Plan, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) said that 7.5 million turkeys and 42.1 million egg-layer and pullet chickens have already been killed or culled, with devastating effects on these US businesses and a cost to Federal taxpayers of over $950 million. 

US egg prices reached record highs this summer because of the egg shortage and are susceptible to continued fluctuations depending on the status of the epidemic. Under USDA's worst case scenario, 500 or more commercial establishments of various sizes across a large geographical area could be affected, including commercial high-volume poultry establishments, commercial high-value poultry establishments (game or specialty birds), the live bird marketing system, and backyard flocks in the 20 states that represent a composite of the top broiler, turkey, and layer producing states.

Since 1996 HPAI viruses have spread throughout Asia and into Europe, Africa and North America, causing the loss of hundreds of millions of birds. The current epizootic is the largest in terms of number of infected birds and also the most widely spread geographically, affecting 30 countries during a single year.  Other than the US, which in April experienced a peak in new incidents, Chinese Taipei and Nigeria were the only other countries to experience similar or larger scale outbreaks so far in 2015; new outbreaks peaked in January in Chinese Taipei and March in Nigeria.

Sources: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in Animals (Type H5 and H7), Jan 2005 - Sep 2015; USDA Production, Supply and Distribution by Market Year, July 2015; Prices, Annual, Monthly, Daily Series and Quarterly, September 2015; IMF Primary Commodity Prices, August 2015