Africa's Demographic Boom — A Path to Economic Prosperity, or to Social Crisis?

(16 June 2021) Africa is the only continent with a fast-growing population, and the only one where the population is expected to continue growing beyond 2050. 

• According to the UN's 2019 World Population Prospects report, in the next 80 years population of Africa will increase by more than three times — from 1.3 billion people in 2020 to 4.2 billion in 2100.
• In 19 African countries, the population is on track to double in the next 30 years, and in 28 African countries the population is expected to triple by 2100.
• Nigeria is projected to become the world's third most populous country by the end of the century, with 732 million people.

The rapid population growth in Africa combined with the simultaneously increasing share of the population that is of working age provide conditions that can be the basis for so-called "demographic dividend": an increasing working age population and a low share of non-working population translating into rapid economic growth. 

But this growth doesn't happen automatically. People don’t just skate into good jobs by being of working age, and smart investments don’t come from thin air. The most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are currently among the least developed nations in the world, according to the UN Human Development Index (HDI). In addition, a comparison between Nigeria (the largest African economy and the most populous country on the continent) and India — developing countries with equal per capita income — shows a slower pace of social progress (measured by HDI) in Nigeria over the last 16 than in India.

In fact, in the last five years social progress in Sub-Saharan Africa, as measured by UN Human Development Index, has almost stopped. Lack of economic and educational opportunity could increase the risk that the population boom in Africa will end up not with demographic dividend but with increasing instability, higher inequality, social conflicts, and growing violence.

Note: UN Human Development Index is a summary measure of average achievement in key dimensions of human development: a long and healthy life, being knowledgeable and have a decent standard of living. The HDI is the geometric mean of normalized indices for each of the three dimensions.