Natural Gas Price Forecast: 2021, 2022 and Long Term to 2050

(15 June 2021) The US natural gas spot price at Henry Hub, Louisiana — the benchmark price reference for the US natural gas market and an important price reference in global gas trading — will average $3.07 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2021, a 51% increase from the 2020 average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency attributes this year's price growth to rising liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increasing domestic natural gas consumption outside of the power sector. In 2022, Henry Hub prices are expected to decrease to $2.93/MMBtu due to slowing growth in LNG exports and rising US natural gas production.

The World Bank, in its Commodity Markets Outlook, forecasts US natural gas prices to remain close to current levels over the rest of 2021, averaging $2.80/MMBtu, which marks a 39% rebound from 2020. The report cites global economic recovery, cold weather, and supply disruptions as the main drivers of the rebound in prices this year. The World Bank expects the other two benchmarks, European and Japanese natural gas import prices, to show different dynamics in 2021, with a steeper increase in European prices and a small decline in Japanese prices.

The consensus forecast for 2021 from the four leading sources — EIA, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the Canadian Government — is $2.81/MMBtu, which is 39% higher than in 2020. See the charts below to compare forecasts from different sources and analyze supply and demand forces.

Natural gas is widely used in energy generation, transportation, commercial, and household sectors, as well as in energy-intensive industries such as chemical, iron and steel manufacturing. The United States, Europe, Russia, and China, the top four natural gas consumers, together accounted for 53% of global consumption in 2019.

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